New deal: which emerging countries could be the winners of tomorrow's world?

Beyond the cleavage with the West, the global South's strategic interests are also very different and sometimes even divergent. Macroeconomic performance, short- and medium-term growth prospects: between profound heterogeneity and real opportunities, which emerging countries can make the most of the change taking place on the world economic stage?

Coface's central scenario for this year is a ( extended ) soft landing for the world economy (+2.3% after +2.6% in 2023). While geopolitical risks (Red Sea, Middle East) may disrupt global supply chains, and inflationary pressures are not only a distant memory for advanced economies and businesses, global growth should still be above 2%. "And this is more than ever thanks to the emerging economies," stresses Bruno de Moura Fernandes, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Coface.

Challenging Western values, China-US antagonism: in this reshaping world, emerging economies can take advantage by offering concessions or opportunities to China, the United States or any other regional power.

Over 70% of global growth generated by emerging economies

"Faced with a slowdown in the United States and continued sluggish growth in the eurozone, the emerging countries will be the main drivers of the global economy in 2024, with an expected contribution of 1.7% of the 2.3% growth in global GDP. In total, over 70% of global growth will be generated by emerging economies, the highest level since 2013. This multipolar, interconnected, antagonistic and, at first sight, disorganised global economy opens up a wide range of opportunities for emerging economies", analyses Bruno de Moura Fernandes.

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[REPLAY] Emerging economies: risks and opportunities, deciphered by 4 Coface economist experts at the Coface Country Risk 2024 Conference.