All Coface Publications
In 2022, Asian businesses took a more stringent approach to credit terms amid a year of aggressive rate hikes, tighter financial conditions and higher inflation.
Check out now which countries and sectors are less affected now.
The year 2023 began with great enthusiasm, but in all likelihood it will not be the year that most observers were expecting. The 1st half of the year has reinforced some of our convictions: no, inflation will not spontaneously and painlessly return to its 2% target in developed countries; no, central banks will not "pivot" between now and the end of the year; and no, the mere lifting of health restrictions will not enable China to play the role of relay engine for the global economy.Read More
2023 Coface China Corporate Payment Survey: Companies report shorter payment delays in 2022 and expect higher economic growth in 2023
• Coface’ survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2022. 40% of respondents reported overdue, down from 53% in 2021. The average payment delay was shortened from 86 to 83 days in 2022.
• Fewer companies faced ultra-long payment delays (ULPDs).
UNITED KINGDOM: CORPORATE INSOLVENCIES ARE GOING FROM ZERO TO A HUNDRED AFTER END OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT MEASURES
• In 2022, around 23,400 companies went bankrupt in the UK, causing corporate insolvencies to reach its highest levels since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis.
• The rapid rise in insolvencies came after 2 years of low level of insolvencies.
• The increase was centralised around smaller companies and has mainly been driven by creditor’s voluntary liquidations. Insolvencies in larger companies were still below their 2019 level.
The year 2023 starts with good news on the macroeconomic front. First, Europe has avoided a recession that looked long promised. Efficiency gains and the slowdown in activity have led to a sharp drop in energy prices and thus a welcome slowdown in inflation. Finally, the prospect of a rebound in China in the second half of the year, albeit very uncertain, also raises hopes for the global economy. This was enough for the financial markets to go wild, reassured by the fact that the worst-case scenario is for the time being, at bay.Read More
Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.Read More
While the difficult economic situation took its toll, the 6th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany indicates that the impact on corporate payments in 2022 appears to be moderate and comparatively lower than the shock on the economy. However, companies are vigilant in the short-term and very pessimistic about the future.
The year 2021 was characterised by a stop-start economic recovery amid new COVID-19 variant outbreaks, prompting companies in Asia-Pacific to remain accommodative in the provision of credit terms. Average payment terms increased from 68 days in 2020 to 71 in 2021, as more companies provided longer credit terms, according to the 2022 Asia Corporate Payment Survey. Out of 13 sectors, only textile and energy reported a shortening of credit terms amid rising input prices, especially for energy and fibres, exerting greater cost pressure on these two sectors.Read More
Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, first lessons can be drawn: the conflict, which is set to last, has already upset the global geo-economic balance. In the short term, the war is exacerbating tensions in a production system that has already been damaged by two years of pandemic and is heightening the risk of a hard landing for the world economy: while the latter seemed to be facing the threat of stagflation a few weeks ago, the change in tone of the central banks, faced with the acceleration of inflation, has resurrected the prospect of a recession, particularly in the advanced economies.Read More
Medium & long-term knock-on effects of the war in Europe on global sectors trends: will there be resilient sectors?
Even though we see disparities according to companies’ position in the supply chain or geographic location, all 13 sectors studied by Coface will keep on being impacted by the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine, directly or indirectly, in the medium to long term. Most sectors are expected to be affected by a context of high commodities prices & supply issues exacerbated by the war. This is notably the case for high oil prices that are likely to keep on being fueled by the spillover effect of the ban on Russian oil announced last week by the EU commission; as well as for cereals (Ukraine, Russia & Belarus being large cereal producers).Read More
COFACE CHINA CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY: INCREASING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS AND RISING RAW MATERIAL PRICES
Coface’s 2022 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2021, but those that did report longer periods of overdue payments than in the previous year. The average payment delay rose from 79 days in 2020 to 86 days in 2021. Firms in 9 out of 13 sectors reported an increase in payment delays, led by agri-food, which recorded the largest increase of 43 days, followed by wood, transport, and textile.Read More
More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict.Read More
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered turmoil in the financial markets, and drastically increased uncertainty about the recovery of the global economy. Since our last publication, the world has shifted, so have the risks.
The sixth edition of Coface’s survey on payment experience in Poland was carried out in November and December 2021 with 331 companies participating in the study. At that time, Poland, as other countries, was still facing significant COVID-19 cases, with the ongoing official state of epidemic emergency in force. Nevertheless, restrictive measures were relatively soft and have not limited economic activity. GDP growth in Poland reached 5.7% in 2021, and should maintain its recovery pace in 2022, reaching 4.4% growth, according to the Coface forecast.Read More
Two years after the onset of the pandemic, the global economy continues to recover, but still faces significant challenges. After the lull in the 3rd quarter of 2021, Omicron has highlighted the unpredictability of the pandemic and exacerbated one of the main factors affecting the recovery: disruptions in supply chains. The other major risk is the lasting inflation slippage.Read More
Survey on the payment behavior of companies in Morocco in 2021: shortened delays but still widespread late payments
According to the study conducted by Coface in 2021 on the payment behaviour of companies in Morocco , contractual payment terms in the country remain long, reaching an average of 79 days. However, they have improved significantly, with a shorter duration of about 14 days compared to the previous survey conducted in 2019.Read More
More than 18 months after the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic started, the economic recovery continues. This trend owes much to progress in the vaccine rollout over the summer, particularly in advanced economies. In turn, this is spurring a rebound in consumption of high-contact services. The situation remains heterogeneous in emerging economies: this rebound is benefitting export-oriented countries, while service-dependent economies continue lagging.Read More
The retail sector’s activity has been affected by the COVID crisis through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the sector greatly varies across countries and segments. While some countries did experience lower retail sales in 2020, the effect was null in others and even positive in Northern European countries. The impacts are also different according to the segments, clothing stores being the most affected.Read More
IN THE COVID-19 AFTERMATH, LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS TOWARDS CHINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND AT THE UNITED STATES’ EXPENSE
The trade relationship between China and Latin America has expanded considerably over the past two decades, gradually standing out (compared to the U.S.) as an important market for the region’s exports. The reasons behind this sustained trend range from the difference in growth rates observed in the world’s two largest economies to the trade policies implemented by the U.S. and Chinese governments in recent years. To analyse the trade relations with these two countries, this paper focuses on the trade in goods of the six largest economies in the region (excl. Mexico): Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.Read More