Construction and real estate sectors are among the most cyclical sectors. Sensitive to changes in the labour market, prices in commodities and, first and foremost, the interest rate environment and accessibility of credit, they are currently under strain. And things are unlikely to get any better in 2024.
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After a somewhat turbulent 2023, which ultimately turned out much better than expected, 2024 is shaping up to be as decisive as it is uncertain, both in (geo)political terms, with more than 60 national elections - presidential and/or legislative - and in economic terms, with risks mounting on a still slowing global economy.Read More
In a context that we explain in our barometer, Coface has made 22 changes to sector ratings: 17 upgrades and 5 downgrades.
Find out which sectors in which regions are affected in our sector risk infographic.
Poland has seen an economic improvement in the last months of this year. However, it has been slow and gradual as the regional environment remains adverse.
Which sectors are the most resilient? Read it in our study.
After collapsing due to travel restrictions to combat Covid-19, tourist numbers are now returning to pre-pandemic levels across Europe, with Mediterranean countries benefiting all the more. From a broken engine a decade ago, Southern Europe has become the workhorse of the post-pandemic European recovery. In 2021-23, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal have consistently accounted for between a fourth and half of EU GDP growth.Read More
The situation of the German metals sector has never been easy, but it got more challenging with the emergence of the competition of Chinese state-supported metal products as well as the downturn of the German automotive sector since 2018. Despite challenges, the payment behaviour has - counter-intuitively - improved over the years in the metals sector according to the results of our annual Germany payment surveys.Read More
In 2023, 97% of French companies have offered payment terms to their customers, with an average timeframe of 48 days.
Despite this, 82% of companies have recorded payments delays by their clients over the past 12 months. The majority stated that late payments were occurring more frequently, and for longer periods than last year. The deterioration in corporate payment habits is echoed in insolvency numbers, with an undisputed increase observed since the start of the year that has even overshot pre-Covid levels.
After a slowdown in 2023 mainly due to lower energy production and prices, 2024 is expected to be a year of higher economic growth for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as, after several months of pessimism about global oil demand, prices have been on the rise since summer. But all countries are not equal…Read More
The good news at the start of 2023 quickly gave way to hints that the end of the year would be far less promising.
Over and above the risks that have already been mentioned many times, some of which continue to intensify (financial stability, social and political risks), we should bear in mind that the fight against inflation has not yet been won: excluding energy, inflation remains well above the targets set by central banks, while the situation on the oil market has (again) became tense following the attacks in Israel.
In contrast to last year, the latest edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany was not affected by special events like the COVID-19 pandemic or the onset of the war in Ukraine and the resulting price pressures of commodities.Read More
In 2022, Asian businesses took a more stringent approach to credit terms amid a year of aggressive rate hikes, tighter financial conditions and higher inflation.
Check out now which countries and sectors are less affected now.
The year 2023 began with great enthusiasm, but in all likelihood it will not be the year that most observers were expecting. The 1st half of the year has reinforced some of our convictions: no, inflation will not spontaneously and painlessly return to its 2% target in developed countries; no, central banks will not "pivot" between now and the end of the year; and no, the mere lifting of health restrictions will not enable China to play the role of relay engine for the global economy.Read More
2023 Coface China Corporate Payment Survey: Companies report shorter payment delays in 2022 and expect higher economic growth in 2023
• Coface’ survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2022. 40% of respondents reported overdue, down from 53% in 2021. The average payment delay was shortened from 86 to 83 days in 2022.
• Fewer companies faced ultra-long payment delays (ULPDs).
UNITED KINGDOM: CORPORATE INSOLVENCIES ARE GOING FROM ZERO TO A HUNDRED AFTER END OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORT MEASURES
• In 2022, around 23,400 companies went bankrupt in the UK, causing corporate insolvencies to reach its highest levels since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis.
• The rapid rise in insolvencies came after 2 years of low level of insolvencies.
• The increase was centralised around smaller companies and has mainly been driven by creditor’s voluntary liquidations. Insolvencies in larger companies were still below their 2019 level.
The year 2023 starts with good news on the macroeconomic front. First, Europe has avoided a recession that looked long promised. Efficiency gains and the slowdown in activity have led to a sharp drop in energy prices and thus a welcome slowdown in inflation. Finally, the prospect of a rebound in China in the second half of the year, albeit very uncertain, also raises hopes for the global economy. This was enough for the financial markets to go wild, reassured by the fact that the worst-case scenario is for the time being, at bay.Read More
Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.Read More
While the difficult economic situation took its toll, the 6th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany indicates that the impact on corporate payments in 2022 appears to be moderate and comparatively lower than the shock on the economy. However, companies are vigilant in the short-term and very pessimistic about the future.
The year 2021 was characterised by a stop-start economic recovery amid new COVID-19 variant outbreaks, prompting companies in Asia-Pacific to remain accommodative in the provision of credit terms. Average payment terms increased from 68 days in 2020 to 71 in 2021, as more companies provided longer credit terms, according to the 2022 Asia Corporate Payment Survey. Out of 13 sectors, only textile and energy reported a shortening of credit terms amid rising input prices, especially for energy and fibres, exerting greater cost pressure on these two sectors.Read More