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“A COLD CHILL ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY” Q3 2022 BAROMETER

Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.

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Coface’s Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2022: Battered companies prepare for another crisis

While the difficult economic situation took its toll, the 6th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany indicates that the impact on corporate payments in 2022 appears to be moderate and comparatively lower than the shock on the economy. However, companies are vigilant in the short-term and very pessimistic about the future.

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ASIA PAYMENT SURVEY 2022

The year 2021 was characterised by a stop-start economic recovery amid new COVID-19 variant outbreaks, prompting companies in Asia-Pacific to remain accommodative in the provision of credit terms. Average payment terms increased from 68 days in 2020 to 71 in 2021, as more companies provided longer credit terms, according to the 2022 Asia Corporate Payment Survey. Out of 13 sectors, only textile and energy reported a shortening of credit terms amid rising input prices, especially for energy and fibres, exerting greater cost pressure on these two sectors.

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A recession to avoid stagflation? The world economy at a crossroads Coface Barometer Q2 2022

Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, first lessons can be drawn: the conflict, which is set to last, has already upset the global geo-economic balance. In the short term, the war is exacerbating tensions in a production system that has already been damaged by two years of pandemic and is heightening the risk of a hard landing for the world economy: while the latter seemed to be facing the threat of stagflation a few weeks ago, the change in tone of the central banks, faced with the acceleration of inflation, has resurrected the prospect of a recession, particularly in the advanced economies.

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Medium & long-term knock-on effects of the war in Europe on global sectors trends: will there be resilient sectors?

Even though we see disparities according to companies’ position in the supply chain or geographic location, all 13 sectors studied by Coface will keep on being impacted by the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine, directly or indirectly, in the medium to long term. Most sectors are expected to be affected by a context of high commodities prices & supply issues exacerbated by the war. This is notably the case for high oil prices that are likely to keep on being fueled by the spillover effect of the ban on Russian oil announced last week by the EU commission; as well as for cereals (Ukraine, Russia & Belarus being large cereal producers).

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COFACE CHINA CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY: INCREASING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS AND RISING RAW MATERIAL PRICES

Coface’s 2022 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2021, but those that did report longer periods of overdue payments than in the previous year. The average payment delay rose from 79 days in 2020 to 86 days in 2021. Firms in 9 out of 13 sectors reported an increase in payment delays, led by agri-food, which recorded the largest increase of 43 days, followed by wood, transport, and textile.

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War in Ukraine: Many (big) losers, few (real) winners

More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict.

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Economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Stagflation ahead

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered turmoil in the financial markets, and drastically increased uncertainty about the recovery of the global economy. Since our last publication, the world has shifted, so have the risks.

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POLAND PAYMENT SURVEY 2022

The sixth edition of Coface’s survey on payment experience in Poland was carried out in November and December 2021 with 331 companies participating in the study. At that time, Poland, as other countries, was still facing significant COVID-19 cases, with the ongoing official state of epidemic emergency in force. Nevertheless, restrictive measures were relatively soft and have not limited economic activity. GDP growth in Poland reached 5.7% in 2021, and should maintain its recovery pace in 2022, reaching 4.4% growth, according to the Coface forecast.

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The global recovery continues in 2022, but a bumpy road lies ahead – Coface Barometer Q4 2021

Two years after the onset of the pandemic, the global economy continues to recover, but still faces significant challenges. After the lull in the 3rd quarter of 2021, Omicron has highlighted the unpredictability of the pandemic and exacerbated one of the main factors affecting the recovery: disruptions in supply chains. The other major risk is the lasting inflation slippage.

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Survey on the payment behavior of companies in Morocco in 2021: shortened delays but still widespread late payments

According to the study conducted by Coface in 2021 on the payment behaviour of companies in Morocco , contractual payment terms in the country remain long, reaching an average of 79 days. However, they have improved significantly, with a shorter duration of about 14 days compared to the previous survey conducted in 2019.

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Barometer Q3 2021: Supply chain and inflation headwinds hamper the global recovery

More than 18 months after the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic started, the economic recovery continues. This trend owes much to progress in the vaccine rollout over the summer, particularly in advanced economies. In turn, this is spurring a rebound in consumption of high-contact services. The situation remains heterogeneous in emerging economies: this rebound is benefitting export-oriented countries, while service-dependent economies continue lagging.

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Has the global retail sector returned to normal?

The retail sector’s activity has been affected by the COVID crisis through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the sector greatly varies across countries and segments. While some countries did experience lower retail sales in 2020, the effect was null in others and even positive in Northern European countries. The impacts are also different according to the segments, clothing stores being the most affected.

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IN THE COVID-19 AFTERMATH, LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS TOWARDS CHINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND AT THE UNITED STATES’ EXPENSE

The trade relationship between China and Latin America has expanded considerably over the past two decades, gradually standing out (compared to the U.S.) as an important market for the region’s exports. The reasons behind this sustained trend range from the difference in growth rates observed in the world’s two largest economies to the trade policies implemented by the U.S. and Chinese governments in recent years. To analyse the trade relations with these two countries, this paper focuses on the trade in goods of the six largest economies in the region (excl. Mexico): Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.

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New wave of post-pandemic social movements: international trade as collateral victim

While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a temporary stop to the upsurge of protest movements, a new wave is on the horizon. Protests, mainly in emerging countries, are expected to increase due to an unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators. In 2020, the Coface social and political risk indicator reached a record of 51% worldwide, and 55% in emerging countries.

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Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2021: Learning to live with the pandemic

The 5th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany was conducted in July and August 2021, with 819 companies participating.
One of the main takeaways is that German companies seem to have acclimatised to the pandemic environment. More companies are offering payment terms compared to last year when the figure had fallen sharply. Although Germany experienced a strong recession in 2020 and early 2021, payment discipline continued to improve in 2021 compared to already good results in 2020. Furthermore, the average duration of payment delays shortened by over a week.

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What perspectives for the United Arab Emirates after COVID-19?

The UAE’s economy was hit by a double shock in 2020: the collapse in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. According to preliminary estimates, the UAE’s economy shrank by 6.1% in 2020. However, the outlook is brighter for 2021. Coface expects growth at 3.1% thanks to a fast vaccination campaign, a sharp recovery of the global economy and the rebound in energy prices.

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Is the electric vehicle metals boom sustainable?

The metals used in electric vehicles, such as lithium, cobalt and copper, are at the heart of the revolution currently taking place in the automotive industry. Strict regulations, government support programmes, and the increased use of electric vehicles in certain regions are all strongly stimulating demand for these metals, which are now indispensable in the manufacture of batteries. Imbalances between supply and demand are thus pushing up their prices, even though the market share of electric vehicles remains modest. In its latest analysis, Coface does not foresee any major changes in these price trends over the next two years.

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Barometer Q2 2021: A two-speed world

18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the main factor setting the pace of people's daily lives and the global economy. GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is mainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume last year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.

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Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2021:

Coface’s 2021 Asia Corporate Payment Survey, conducted between October 2020 and March 2021, provides insights into the evolution of payment behavior and credit management practices of over 2,500 companies across Asia Pacific during a pandemic year. Respondents came from nine markets (Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan) and 13 sectors located in the Asia Pacific region.

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