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News & Publications
Coface publishes CEE Top 500 companies: Do external risks overshadow long-lasting solid economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe?09/18/2019
The international credit insurance company presents its eleventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe – the Coface CEE Top 500. It ranks businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses further facts such as the number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets as well as the new Coface company credit assessments. The economic development of the CEE Top 500 is representative of the market trend in the entire region.
China’s reopening process has come faster and earlier than expected. After announcing a gradual easing of its zero-Covid policy in November, the National Health Commission finally decided to downgrade the Covid-19 risk level in late December.
RECESSION, INFLATION, UKRAINE, CHINA, MONETARY POLICY... 2023 AS SEEN BY JEAN-CHRISTOPHE CAFFET, COFACE CHIEF ECONOMIST01/16/2023
• 2021 – a favourable environment for Central and Eastern Europe with 5.7% GDP growth after a recession of -3.7% in the first year of pandemic
• Top 500 players: increase in turnover, net profits and employment, due to the recovery from the slump of activity
• Sectors: the reliable backbone oil and gas comes in first in the top 500 followed by automotive & transport and non-specialized trade
• Poland is home to the largest businesses in the region with an increasing aggregated turnover by 26% in 2021 compared to previously
While the sources of economic uncertainty are legion, new political disturbances could be added to their ranks. For several years now, political risk has been a recurring theme in the news, taking various forms: rising populism, social unrest, conflicts, terrorism, and protectionism. The new geopolitical landscape opened up by Russia's actions could reawaken risks in other global hot spots. In addition, price pressures, particularly on basic goods, continue to fuel frustrations, building on those generated by the economic and health crisis triggered by the pandemic.
Coface is today sharing the results of the update of its social and political fragility index. This index has, admittedly, fallen from the record level reached last year, but still suggests a high risk environment. And while the focus naturally shifts to the risks of unrest in emerging countries, the advanced economies are not expected to be spared from this upsurge in social tensions.
Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.
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