The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered turmoil in the financial markets, and drastically increased uncertainty about the recovery of the global economy. Since our last publication, the world has shifted, so have the risks.
Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, first lessons can be drawn: the conflict, which is set to last, has already upset the global geo-economic balance. In the short term, the war is exacerbating tensions in a production system that has already been damaged by two years of pandemic and is heightening the risk of a hard landing for the world economy: while the latter seemed to be facing the threat of stagflation a few weeks ago, the change in tone of the central banks, faced with the acceleration of inflation, has resurrected the prospect of a recession, particularly in the advanced economies.
Coface, a top provider of integrated credit risk management services, marks 15 years since the launch of the commercial credit insurance division on the Romanian market. In this context, the company launches EasyLiner, an insurance product dedicated to SMEs, adapted to the new requirements of the market. Coface thus continues to support companies in their development.
Medium & long-term knock-on effects of the war in Europe on global sectors trends: will there be resilient sectors?05/24/2022
Even though we see disparities according to companies’ position in the supply chain or geographic location, all 13 sectors studied by Coface will keep on being impacted by the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine, directly or indirectly, in the medium to long term. Most sectors are expected to be affected by a context of high commodities prices & supply issues exacerbated by the war. This is notably the case for high oil prices that are likely to keep on being fueled by the spillover effect of the ban on Russian oil announced last week by the EU commission; as well as for cereals (Ukraine, Russia & Belarus being large cereal producers). In a context of ongoing disruptions in semiconductors supply, and still spillover effect of the COVID pandemic as shown by the Shanghai port lockdown, the longer the war lasts, the more likely it is that a demand shock will materialize, making the global environment even more adverse.
COFACE CHINA CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY: INCREASING RISKS IN SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS AND RISING RAW MATERIAL PRICES05/17/2022
Coface’s 2022 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2021, but those that did report longer periods of overdue payments than in the previous year. The average payment delay rose from 79 days in 2020 to 86 days in 2021. Firms in 9 out of 13 sectors reported an increase in payment delays, led by agri-food, which recorded the largest increase of 43 days, followed by wood, transport, and textile.