Sector dynamics now matter more than national borders in determining corporate performance across Central and Eastern Europe. According to Coface’s new CEE Sectorial Heatmap 2026(1) Chinese imports into the region rose by around 17% over the past year, accelerating competitive pressure on local manufacturers and widening the gap between winning and losing sectors.
Key messages
- Metals and chemicals are most often identified as vulnerable sectors among CEE countries, facing sustained pressure from high energy costs, regulation and foreign competition.
- Chinese imports into CEE rose by around 17% year-on-year, intensifying competitive pressure on local manufacturers.
- ICT remains one of the strongest-performing sectors, supported by digitalisation, skilled labour and public investment.
- Retail performance is diverging significantly between countries, reflecting the growing importance of domestic fiscal policy.
- EU funded programmes, are supporting investment in construction, healthcare, defence-related industries and digital transformation.
- Cofaceexpects regional economic growth to moderate slightly from 2.1% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026 before improving to 2.3% in 2027.
The study highlights that disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has affected far more than energy markets. Rising costs for oil, natural gas, fertilisers, aluminium and petrochemical-derived products are creating ripple effects across supply chains, increasing cost pressures for manufacturers and contributing to renewed inflation across the region.
At the same time, the region is facing what economists increasingly describe as "China Shock 2.0". Confronted by weak domestic demand, Chinese manufacturers are expanding aggressively into export markets, particularly in Europe. This trend is putting pressure on local producers, eroding margins and intensifying competition across several industrial sectors. Automotive manufacturers, chemical producers and metals companies are among the sectors facing the strongest challenges.
Not all sectors are moving in the same direction. ICT stands out as one of the most favourable sectors in the region, supported by digital transformation programmes, strong demand for technology services and a highly skilled workforce. The sector remains a key driver of economic convergence and competitiveness across CEE.
The report also highlights significant differences between countries and sectors. Retail, for example, presents a mixed picture, with favourable conditions in some markets and elevated risks in others, depending on local economic conditions, fiscal policies and consumer confidence trends.
Despite the challenges, the study identifies important sources of resilience. Investments supported by the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and SAFE programme are expected to provide significant support for construction, healthcare, digitalisation and infrastructure projects throughout the region. These investments are helping to offset some of the economic impact of geopolitical uncertainty and supporting business activity across multiple sectors.
Diverse picture across the countries
Poland remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the EU, supported by strong consumer demand and EU-funded investment. Romania, meanwhile, faces recessionary conditions as fiscal consolidation weighs on household spending. Slovakia's retail sector is under pressure from higher taxes and weaker consumption, while Bulgaria's construction sector continues to benefit from favourable financing conditions and urbanisation trends.
The gap between sectors is now wider than the gap between countries. Future success will depend less on overall economic growth and more on how effectively industries adjust to changing cost structures, technological transformation and global competition.
says Mateusz Dadej, Ph.D, Regional Economist, Coface Central & Eastern Europe Region.
Romania: Pharmaceuticals show resilience as retail suffers from austerity
Romania is facing recession in 2026 as fiscal consolidation weighs on aggregate demand, with growth expected to recover to 1.6% in 2027. Pharmaceuticals are the favourable sector, supported by resilient manufacturing output, EU-backed healthcare modernisation and growth potential in private healthcare. Retail is under pressure from fiscal consolidation, higher VAT rates, the removal of energy-price support, falling real wages and consumers postponing discretionary purchases.
The real challenge for businesses today is not the lack of information, but the ability to identify what matters most.
As risks evolve more rapidly across sectors and markets, reliable data and forward-looking insights are essential for making informed decisions and building resilience.
adds Jarosław Jaworski, CEO Coface Central & Eastern Europe Region.
About the report
The full CEE Sectorial Heatmap 2026 provides an in-depth assessment of 13 sectors across Central and Eastern Europe plus a snapshot on each country, offering businesses valuable insights into evolving risks, growth opportunities and sector-specific trends.
The study is designed to support decision-makers, risk managers and corporate leaders in identifying potential vulnerabilities and making more informed business decisions in an increasingly complex environment.
> Download the full study
(1) In the study, spanning 13 sectors across 13 CEE countries, our economic experts identify two sectors for each country: one in which firm conditions are particularly challenging and one in which the operating environment remains robust.
