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New Coface Political Risk Index in 159 countries

New Coface Political Risk Index in 159 countries

Following the political risk index specific for Western Europe (2016) and emerging countries (2013), Coface launches a global index for 159 countries. Combination of two major components - the security risks (conflict and terrorism) and the political and social risks -  allows a complete ranking of the political risk.

The score for the Middle East an North Africa is high (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria: 100%) and on the increase since 2010 (+22 points for the Lebanon, +20 points for Egypt). In Sub-Saharan Africa, the risk has been growing since 2013 due to the conflicts that are discouraging investors: +36 points in Nigeria (-30% FDI since 2013), +28 points in Central African Republic (note that Côte d’Ivoire is showing slight improvement: -6 points). 

The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent Statesare also significantly above the average. The deterioration in the scores of Russia (+2 points) and Ukraine (+41 points) is not the sole reason for this. A rise may also be noted in the political and social fragilities of Tajikistan (+10 points) and Azerbaijan (+8 points).

Latin America, where social fragility is rising, is on an upward slope (Mexico +25 points and Venezuela +9 points).

Trends are mixed in Asia, with the exception of the two giants, China (+10 points) and India (stable), the political risk has been gradually improving since 2010 (Sri Lanka: -60 points; Nepal: -25 points).

For the developed countries, the "Manifesto" project data has been added, taking into account the rising populism. It surveys the proportion of political manifestos allocated to an electoral theme (protectionism, security, public order, national values, etc). The analysis conducted by Coface demonstrates that the countries in which the pressure of populism has reached the highest level are the United Kingdom (score of 73%) and France (70%) with a relatively significant share of themes linked to public order, followed by Austria (64%) and the Netherlands (63%), where a significant share deals with distrust of multiculturalism.

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