GLOBAL TRANSPORT: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD BEYOND COVID-19?
Here are the main points addressed in this study.
Coface does not expect the sector to recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022.
- In Coface’s central scenario, the turnover of listed companies of the global transport sector will be 32% lower in the 4th quarter 2020 and 5% lower in the 4th quarter 2021 than in the 4th quarter 2019.
- In the hypothesis of a second wave of the pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2020, the turnover would be 57% lower in the 4th 2020 and 27% lower in the 4th 2021.
- The impact of COVID-19 is all the more important since economic activity was already slowing down before the crisis.
Focus on air transport: the means of transport most affected by the health crisis
- Among the 13 sectors for which Coface publishes sectoral risk assessments, air transport would be the most affected: its turnover expected to decrease by 51% in the baseline scenario and by 57% in the event of a second COVID-19 wave in Q3 2020.
- According to the IATA (International Air Transport Association), air traffic decreased by 94% year-on-year in April 2020 and is not expected to return to its pre-COVID level before several years.
- The fall in air passenger activity led to a strong decrease in air cargo capacity, as most of air cargo is carried by passenger aircraft in the "belly" of the plane.
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