Coface publishes CEE Top 500 companies: Do external risks overshadow long-lasting solid economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe?09/18/2019
The international credit insurance company presents its eleventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe – the Coface CEE Top 500. It ranks businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses further facts such as the number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets as well as the new Coface company credit assessments. The economic development of the CEE Top 500 is representative of the market trend in the entire region.
Here are the main points addressed in this study.
Coface does not expect the sector to recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022.
In Coface’s central scenario, the turnover of listed companies of the global transport sector will be 32% lower in the 4th quarter 2020 and 5% lower in the 4th quarter 2021 than in the 4th quarter 2019.
In the hypothesis of a second wave of the pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2020, the turnover would be 57% lower in the 4th 2020 and 27% lower in the 4th 2021.
The impact of COVID-19 is all the more important since economic activity was already slowing down before the crisis.
As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.
After a 2019 that was dominated by trade tensions between the United States and China, Coface has observed an incipent recovery in Asia (excluding China), supported by supply chain shifts and additional liquidity from the US Federal Reserve . Average payment terms improved in 2019, rising to 67 days compared to 69 days in 2018. And while 65% of companies reported experiencing payment delays in 2019 (63% in 2018), the average payment duration decreased to 85 days in 2019, down from 88 days in 2018.
Coface announces the closing of the acquisition of GIEK Kredittforsikring AS, a company created in 2001, and owned by the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, that manages a short-term export credit insurance portfolio. Coface has acquired all GIEK Kredittforsikring AS shares, and the business will thus operate under the brand name Coface GK.