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COVID-19, a catalyst for political risks

The annual update of Coface's Political Risk Index, published in the Coface Q3 Barometer, highlights a dual trend: on the one hand, a decrease in the risk of conflict at a global level, but on the other, an increase in the risk of political and social fragility. The latter is exacerbated in the countries most exposed to the coronavirus pandemic.

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German companies have switched to “crisis-mode” and offer less payment terms

German companies want to cash in as early as possible, according to the fourth edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany, conducted in July and early-August 2020, with 753 participating companies located in Germany.
Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 and its effects on the global and German economy is the predominant topic of this survey. One major finding is that German companies are getting worried: companies became cautious in providing payment terms to their clients and less companies are offering payment terms overall and these have shortened, even drastically in some sectors.

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Coface launches Trade Credit Advisory, a product dedicated to improving the trade credit management process

Coface Romania supports companies with a unique product on the market, Trade Credit Advisory, which offers a full assessment of trade credit risk management processes. The launch of this product takes place in a context marked by structural changes in the economy. In this context, in-depth knowledge of a company's risk ecosystem, in parallel with the analysis of external evolutions, systemic risks, as well as key macro and microeconomic vectors becomes essential.

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Will Europe remain a renewable energy powerhouse after the pandemic?

The COVID-19 health crisis has had a negative impact on short-term global renewable energy development, and challenges remain in the medium- to long-term, according to a recent Coface study.
Renewables have strengthened rapidly in the last 20 years, particularly in power generation, increasingly gaining market share from traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and nuclear. The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on this segment of the energy sector, as the pandemic disrupted supply chains and labour availability. Access to funding was also hit hard. These recent trends have affected projects that had already been approved, as well as other projects in the pipeline.

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Coface launches Diagnostic, an innovative product that helps companies correctly assess the financial situation of business partners

In the current situation marked by numerous economic challenges, Coface Romania supports companies by launching Diagnostic, a unique product on the business information market in Romania. The new product develops a risk profile of a subject company in a widely addressable language.

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COFACE REPORTS A POSITIVE NET INCOME OF €11.3M FOR THE SECOND QUARTER 2020 AND CONTINUES TO IMPLEMENT ITS STRATEGIC PLAN

Turnover for the first semester: €725m, down 0.6% at constant FX and perimeter
Client retention and new business achieve record levels, with a positive net production of €33m
First effects of re-pricing are now visible (+0.2%)
Revenues from services progress by 7%, including information services up by 13%
Client activities continue to slowdown – a trend expected to continue over the following quarters

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POST-PANDEMIC PRODUCTION RELOCATION: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CEE COUNTRIES?

Here are the main points addressed in this Coface study:

A favourable context
Foreign trade and inclusion in supply chains had already increased for Central & Eastern European (CEE) in recent years, boosted by most of its countries’ decision to join the European Union (EU) in 2004.

Strong assets
• An educated workforce
• Geographical proximity to Western Europe
• Low labour costs
• Relatively good infrastructure
• A stable business climate
• Improving productivity through greater use of automation and "robotization

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GLOBAL TRANSPORT: WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD BEYOND COVID-19?

Here are the main points addressed in this study.
Coface does not expect the sector to recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022.
In Coface’s central scenario, the turnover of listed companies of the global transport sector will be 32% lower in the 4th quarter 2020 and 5% lower in the 4th quarter 2021 than in the 4th quarter 2019.
In the hypothesis of a second wave of the pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2020, the turnover would be 57% lower in the 4th 2020 and 27% lower in the 4th 2021.
The impact of COVID-19 is all the more important since economic activity was already slowing down before the crisis.

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United States: Two-speed business bankruptcies

As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.

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Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2020: COVID-19 will overturn last year’s incipient recovery

After a 2019 that was dominated by trade tensions between the United States and China, Coface has observed an incipent recovery in Asia (excluding China), supported by supply chain shifts and additional liquidity from the US Federal Reserve . Average payment terms improved in 2019, rising to 67 days compared to 69 days in 2018. And while 65% of companies reported experiencing payment delays in 2019 (63% in 2018), the average payment duration decreased to 85 days in 2019, down from 88 days in 2018.

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Coface finalises the acquisition of GIEK Kredittforsikring AS

Coface announces the closing of the acquisition of GIEK Kredittforsikring AS, a company created in 2001, and owned by the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, that manages a short-term export credit insurance portfolio. Coface has acquired all GIEK Kredittforsikring AS shares, and the business will thus operate under the brand name Coface GK.

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Are corporate balance sheets in Spain and Italy ready for the COVID-19 shock?

Although the second quarter of 2020 is shaping up to be the most challenging period of the year, there are now good reasons to think that the road to recovery will be long and arduous. Despite immediate tax deferrals, liquidity guarantees, it is likely that many firms will find themselves in difficulty.
According to Coface forecasts, Spain and Italy will be among the economies hardest hit by COVID-19, contracting by 12.8% and 13.6% respectively in 2020. Corporate insolvencies are expected to increase by 22% in Spain and 37% in Italy by 2021, relative to 2019 levels. For 2021, Coface forecasts that Spain and Italy’s GDP will rebound by 10.2% and 8.9%, leaving the economies 3.9% and 5.9% below 2019 levels.

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Business insolvencies in Europe: amendments to legal procedures temporarily postpone due dates

The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are of an unprecedented scale in Europe. The twin supply-demand shock has resulted in the halting of production (at least partially) in many companies as employees cannot go to work and in a fall in consumption because of mobility restrictions. The decline in revenues has deteriorated companies’ cash positions, fostering an increase in payment delays – and, ultimately, payment defaults.
Many European countries have temporarily amended the legal framework of default procedures to deal with the crisis

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Coface Barometer Q2 2020-From a massive shock to a diversified recovery

A few weeks after the first containment easing measures, economic activity seems to be picking up in most European countries. However, about two months after China, this gradual and partial recovery will not erase the effects of containment on global growth.
In this context, Coface forecasts that the recession in 2020 (a 4.4% drop in world GDP) will be stronger than that of 2009. Despite the recovery expected in 2021 (+5.1%) – assuming there is no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic – GDP would remain 2 to 5 points lower in the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, when compared to 2019 levels.

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China Payment Survey 2020: Payment delays will increase further because of COVID-19

In the context of weaker activity in China due to the health crisis, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in China shows a deterioration in payment behaviour in 2019.
66% of surveyed companies reported payment delays. The length of payment delays remained stable at 86 days in 2019. Nevertheless, sectors that have been hit the most by lockdown measures will have to delay payments in order to survive in 2020 and the number of corporate insolvencies should increase.

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World Trade: despite a sudden interruption, global value chains still have a bright future

recession and soaring uncertainty
The global recession is expected to coincide with a sharp decline in international trade this year, especially as international trade tends to decline more than GDP in times of crisis. However, the extent of this overreaction is difficult to measure. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 13-32% decline in world trade. This estimate indicates that all regions would suffer a double-digit decline in their trade volumes

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COVID-19 swings the spotlight back onto emerging countries’ debt

While the focus so far has mainly been on China, Europe, and the United States, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be even more severe for emerging economies.
Even though their degree of vulnerability to this shock depends on many factors, the starting point of their public finances is a key issue, as it determines their capacity to respond to the crisis’ many economic consequences. However, their public debt was already at an all-time high in 2019. Coface assesses the direct risks (economic and sectoral) of the pandemic on the development of emerging countries.

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Can China shield its economy from the impact of COVID-19?

Due to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its impact on the global economy, it is unlikely that China will be able to achieve its 2020 growth target. Coface forecasts a growth rate of 4% for the Chinese economy in 2020.
Economic activity in China could decelerate faster than expected this year and miss the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) growth target of 5.6%. In recent months, the Chinese economy has faced multiple headwinds, such as the consequences of the trade war with the United States, as well as structural factors, like the country’s demographic situation (15% of the Chinese population is over 65 years old). In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic is an additional shock that will add significantly to existing challenges.

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First quarter shows solid operational performance but is impacted by the initial effects of the COVID-19 crisis

Turnover: €370m, up 0.9% at constant FX and perimeter
Record client retention and strong new business momentum prior to lockdown
Continued slowdown in client activities -a trend that is expected to accelerate over the coming quarters
Trade Credit Insurance growing at 0.2% at constant FX and perimeters
Dynamic growth of services, up 12%

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Coface Barometer Q1 2020 COVID-19: heading towards a sudden global surge in business insolvencies

At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries in all over the world. The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929). The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.

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