Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 – but the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Polish economy remains to be seen.
Payment terms: transport and construct offer the most generous credit periods
Poland’s GDP growth reached 4.1% in 2019 – a slowdown from the 5.1% recorded in 2018 – and is expected to slow further: Coface anticipates GDP growth in Poland to reach 3.3% in 2020. A relatively favourable macroeconomic environment has created supportive conditions for businesses in previous years. However, the full impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus remains to be observed, notably concerning trade partners. The coronavirus’ knock-on effects could further impact the economic outlook for Poland.
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Coface Romania Study: Insolvencies in Romania decreased by 22% in 2019 compared to previous year, reaching its lowest level over the last decade
The majority of insolvencies were registered in the wholesale and distribution sector followed by the constructions and retail sectors
The most recent Coface Romania study shows that in 2019 there were 6,384 insolvent companies, -22% less compared to the level registered in the previous year. The data also indicate a gradual decrease of insolvent companies with revenues over EUR 0.5 million (medium and large companies). The latter reached 444 companies during 2019, below the average of 550 over the last three years. This evolution was also reflected in the decrease of financial losses of only RON 4.6 billion in 2019, half of the average for the last three years.
As Coface launches the 2020 edition of its Country & Sector Risks Handbook, Chief Economist Julien Marcilly today presents the main threats for the global economy in 2020 at the Coface Country Risk Conference in Paris.
The US-China trade agreement will not be enough to rekindle international trade
With 2019 being marked by a rise in protectionist rhetoric (more than 1,000 measures implemented worldwide) and the first decline of global trade in ten years, Coface anticipates that international trade will grow by only 0.8% in 2020. The truce trade agreement between the United States and China is unlikely to restore corporate confidence or significantly boost industry and world trade, especially as only 23% of the protectionist measures taken between 2017 and 2019 affect the United States or China. The rise in protectionism is therefore a global and lasting trend that to which companies will need to adapt
Turkey Payment Survey 2019: better picture in payment term but companies remain cautions regarding economic prospects
Right after the recession that the economy went into during the second half of 2018 the private sector remains mixed in terms of the economic outlook.
Payment terms: shorter terms reflect preference for liquidity
The deterioration of cash flow has slowed down and fewer companies expressed tougher conditions while making their payments. Nowadays, the average payment term offered by Turkish companies to their clients stood nearly at 85 days in the domestic market and at 69 days in export markets (vs 108 days in 2017).
Hit by increasingly stringent regulations, particularly for environmental purposes, the global automotive industry is facing a downturn and is being forced to reinvent itself.
In a gloomy global economic context, the automotive sector faces several very specific challenges, including stronger and stricter environmental regulations. As a result, car sales are experiencing negative growth not seen since the Great Recession of 2008 and there is an uncertainty prevail in the sector.
While the number of companies facing corporate insolvency has decreased since the beginning of the year, their cost has increased, both financially and in terms of the number of jobs affected.
After a difficult first quarter, marked by the repercussions of the “yellow vests” movement, the number of corporate insolvencies since the beginning of the year in France is set to decline for the fourth consecutive year. However, Coface expects a slight rebound in insolvencies in 2020 (+0.9%), mainly due to the expected slowdown in the construction sector, which was largely driven by public works in 2019 in the run-up to the municipal elections.
According to Coface's 2019 Germany payment survey of 442 companies, the country is in a phase of change. The pressure on companies from international competition is increasing. This is one of the reasons why the pressure on their cash flow continues to increase. On average, German companies saw their payment terms increase from 29.8 days in 2017 to 35.9 days in 2019.
Even if credit risks are insured, companies' confidence in their customers has declined. Short- and medium-term credit periods still dominate the market. 87% of companies request that payments be made within 60 days – a very short time in terms of international comparison. Clients missing payment deadlines now affects 85% of German companies, compared to 78% two years ago.
Recession or slight decline, CRAFT provides the keys to the slowdown in the major economies of the Eurozone.
Since the beginning of 2019, there have been increasing signs of a slowdown in global growth. While all economists agree on this downward trend, after reaching the peak of the cycle in 2017, the question mark now lies in the extent of this slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone. While some people mention a recession in 2020, most economists predict "only" a slight slowdown.
To have more clarity, it is therefore important to have reliable and innovative forecasting tools to take advantage of existing indicators. This is why Coface has decided to develop its own forecasting tool: CRAFT (Coface Research Activity Forecasting Tool).
Agri-food sector outlook: in a global economy marked by protectionist tensions, what does the future hold?
Central to the current trade tensions, notably between the USA and China, the global agri-food sector is impacted by knock on effects, notably via downward trends on the prices of key agri-food commodities, such as soybean. Coface has conducted an in-depth analysis of future trends in this market.
A particularly strategic sector, agri-food (along with ICT) is one of the sectors key to the current trade war between the United States and China. Recently, Chinese authorities have taken steps to ban all agri-food imports from the United States, in response to the tariff increases announced by the Trump administration.
With business morale being affected by a summer marked by a multiplication of areas of political uncertainty around the world, it seems likely that 2020 will be a year of economic decline.
The Argentine currency crisis, major demonstrations in Hong Kong and Russia, Brexit, the attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia – these are just some of the many events that marked the third quarter of 2019. Increasing political uncertainty, combined with the decline in the volume of world trade, the high volatility of oil prices, and the decline in automobile sales in Europe and China, has continued to affect corporate morale.
A dominant global maritime and economic power in the 17th century, the Netherlands has remained a major player in world trade. In 2018, the Netherlands was the sixth-largest merchandise exporter in the world and, in terms of GDP, ranked third in 2015 (just behind Ireland and Switzerland).Read More
Insolvencies in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE): despite an increasingly difficult global economic context, the situation remains posit...
The Central and Eastern European region has experienced unparalleled growth in the European Union. However, a slowdown is expected in the coming years.
The CEE region has seen an improvement in economic activity in recent years. In 2017 and 2018, GDP growth in the region rose to 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively, the highest rates since 2008.
Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter compared with before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical averageRead More
A new survey conducted by Coface Romania on the wholesale of pharmaceutical products indicates a positive trend of the revenues of the companies operating in this sector of activity in 2017, but with a slight decrease in profitability. This study aggregated the data of 1,662 companies, which submitted the financial data for 2017 and generated RON 28.6 MLD consolidated turnover.Read More
US/China trade war, struggling automotive sector, slower growth in emerging economies... the second quarter of 2019 highlights a global economic slowdown
The decline in world trade is confirmed for this first half of the year and even if a slight recovery is expected in the second half of the year, it should suffer a 0.7% loss in volume over the year according to the Coface barometer. World economic growth is expected to decrease from 3.1% in 2018 to 2.7% in 2019 and then remain stable in 2020. In this context, Coface expects that a majority of countries should see an increase in corporate insolvencies this year.