War in Ukraine: Many (big) losers, few (real) winners

More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict.  

Coface has revised upwards its estimate of the cost to the world economy to approximately one percentage point in 2022. However, the consequences of the conflict will be felt mainly from the second half of the year onwards, and will further materialize in 2023 and beyond.

Political risk, which had increased significantly at the global level with the pandemic, is exacerbated by soaring food and energy prices.

No region will be truly spared from the economic fallout of this war, and after the successive shocks of the 2020s, our perception remains the same: the world has shifted, and nothing will ever be the same.