From excessive pessimism to excessive optimism - Coface Barometer Q4 2022-

The year 2023 starts with good news on the macroeconomic front. First, Europe has avoided a recession that looked long promised. Efficiency gains and the slowdown in activity have led to a sharp drop in energy prices and thus a welcome slowdown in inflation. Finally, the prospect of a rebound in China in the second half of the year, albeit very uncertain, also raises hopes for the global economy. This was enough for the financial markets to go wild, reassured by the fact that the worst-case scenario is for the time being, at bay.
While we fundamentally concur, we must be careful not to become complacent. The challenges facing the global economy last year remain relevant and the multidimensional crisis we are experiencing is not about to disappear: geopolitical fragmentation, the energy crisis, climate change, epidemic risks... The transformation of the world is accelerating and generating risks that could derail the best-crafted scenarios.
In this context, Coface's risk assessments have changed only slightly, with 5 changes for country risks and 16 changes for sector risks. In net terms, the trend remains towards downgrades.