Barometer Q2 2021: A two-speed world

18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the main factor setting the pace of people's daily lives and the global economy. GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is mainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume last year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.

In this context of growth in international trade, countries exporting raw materials are benefiting from an improvement in their terms of trade. At the same time, the slow progress of vaccination campaigns in emerging countries makes it unlikely that herd immunity will be achieved in the next twelve months. This suggests that stop-go processes will persist, and continue to constrain domestic demand in most emerging economies.

Finally, Coface notes an increase in political risk linked to the health crisis and the acceleration of inflation.