New wave of post-pandemic social movements: international trade as collateral victim
While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a temporary stop to the upsurge of protest movements, a new wave is on the horizon. Protests, mainly in emerging countries, are expected to increase due to an unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators. In 2020, the Coface social and political risk indicator reached a record of 51% worldwide, and 55% in emerging countries.
This social movements will have repercussions on the economic activity of the affected countries, and particularly on their foreign trade. Coface estimates that mass social movements have particularly pronounced and permanent negative effects on countries’ exports: in a year when such movements take place, exports are on average 4.2% lower than their estimated potential.
The forms of social movements, their persistence, and their intensity, will therefore be decisive for international trade in the years to come.
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