A recession to avoid stagflation? The world economy at a crossroads Coface Barometer Q2 2022

Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, first lessons can be drawn: the conflict, which is set to last, has already upset the global geo-economic balance. In the short term, the war is exacerbating tensions in a production system that has already been damaged by two years of pandemic and is heightening the risk of a hard landing for the world economy: while the latter seemed to be facing the threat of stagflation a few weeks ago, the change in tone of the central banks, faced with the acceleration of inflation, has resurrected the prospect of a recession, particularly in the advanced economies.

In this complex environment, Coface revised downwards the evaluation of 19 countries, including 16 in Europe - Germany, Spain, France and the United Kingdom in particular - and made only 2 revisions upwards (Brazil and Angola). At the sectoral level, the number of downward revisions (76 in total, as opposed to 9 upward revisions) highlights the spread of these successive shocks across all sectors, both energy-intensive ones (petrochemicals, metallurgy, paper, etc.) and those that are more directly linked to the credit cycle (construction).

As the horizon continues to darken, the risks are naturally bearish and no scenario can be ruled out.