“A COLD CHILL ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY” Q3 2022 BAROMETER

Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.

In this context, Coface is making general downward revisions to its GDP growth forecasts and its country and sectoral assessments. 

Eight countries, including Italy, Denmark, Switzerland, Egypt, and Chile, have had their assessment revised downwards after the 19 downgrades in the 2^nd quarter.

The 49 downgrades of sectoral assessments highlight the clear deterioration of conditions in sectors sensitive to the economic cycle such as construction, metals and wood, in a variety of geographies.