More than 18 months after the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic started, the economic recovery continues. This trend owes much to progress in the vaccine rollout over the summer, particularly in advanced economies. In turn, this is spurring a rebound in consumption of high-contact services. The situation remains heterogeneous in emerging economies: this rebound is benefitting export-oriented countries, while service-dependent economies continue lagging.
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This study is the very first Coface survey on corporate payment experience in the Netherlands. Originally, this survey had been conducted between February and early-March 2020 (the first quarter of 2020, Q1 2020), with 301 participating companies located in the country. However, at the end of the survey period, COVID-19 struck the world and changed the economic outlook drastically. Accordingly, in order to factor in this change of companies’ payment experience, we conducted a new survey between early-May and late- June (the second quarter of 2020, Q2 2020), in which 114 companies participated. The results differ remarkably within these few months. Admittedly, some might be due to the different set of participants, but others mirror the new economic status-quo.Read More
Here are the main points addressed in this Coface study:
A favourable context
Foreign trade and inclusion in supply chains had already increased for Central & Eastern European (CEE) in recent years, boosted by most of its countries’ decision to join the European Union (EU) in 2004.
• An educated workforce
• Geographical proximity to Western Europe
• Low labour costs
• Relatively good infrastructure
• A stable business climate
• Improving productivity through greater use of automation and "robotization".
Coface does not expect the sector to recover to fourth quarter 2019 level before 2022.
In Coface’s central scenario, the turnover of listed companies of the global transport sector will be 32% lower in the 4th quarter 2020 and 5% lower in the 4th quarter 2021 than in the 4th quarter 2019.
In the hypothesis of a second wave of the pandemic in the 3rd quarter of 2020, the turnover would be 57% lower in the 4th 2020 and 27% lower in the 4th 2021.
The impact of COVID-19 is all the more important since economic activity was already slowing down before the crisis.
As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country's GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021. Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.Read More
After a 2019 that was dominated by trade tensions between the United States and China, Coface has observed an incipent recovery in Asia (excluding China), supported by supply chain shifts and additional liquidity from the US Federal Reserve . Average payment terms improved in 2019, rising to 67 days compared to 69 days in 2018. And while 65% of companies reported experiencing payment delays in 2019 (63% in 2018), the average payment duration decreased to 85 days in 2019, down from 88 days in 2018.Read More
Although the second quarter of 2020 is shaping up to be the most challenging period of the year, there are now good reasons to think that the road to recovery will be long and arduous. Despite immediate tax deferrals, liquidity guarantees, it is likely that many firms will find themselves in difficulty.
According to Coface forecasts, Spain and Italy will be among the economies hardest hit by COVID-19, contracting by 12.8% and 13.6% respectively in 2020. Corporate insolvencies are expected to increase by 22% in Spain and 37% in Italy by 2021, relative to 2019 levels. For 2021, Coface forecasts that Spain and Italy’s GDP will rebound by 10.2% and 8.9%, leaving the economies 3.9% and 5.9% below 2019 levels.
The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are of an unprecedented scale in Europe. The twin supply-demand shock has resulted in the halting of production (at least partially) in many companies as employees cannot go to work and in a fall in consumption because of mobility restrictions. The decline in revenues has deteriorated companies’ cash positions, fostering an increase in payment delays – and, ultimately, payment defaultsRead More
A few weeks after the first containment easing measures, economic activity seems to be picking up in most European countries. However, about two months after China, this gradual and partial recovery will not erase the effects of containment on global growth.
In this context, Coface forecasts that the recession in 2020 (a 4.4% drop in world GDP) will be stronger than that of 2009. Despite the recovery expected in 2021 (+5.1%) – assuming there is no second wave of the coronavirus pandemic – GDP would remain 2 to 5 points lower in the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, when compared to 2019 levels.
Our survey shows a deterioration in payment behaviour in 2019, which ultimately does not bode well for Chinese companies in the context of weaker activity in 2020. Coface expects growth to fall to 1.0%, the lowest level in 30 years, so given the historic correlation between economic activity and payment delays, we anticipate a sharp deterioration in 2020.Read More
Early 2020 marked by a sudden interruption in world trade, hampered by a global recession and soaring uncertainty
The global recession is expected to coincide with a sharp decline in international trade this year, especially as international trade tends to decline more than GDP in times of crisis. However, the extent of this overreaction is difficult to measure. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a 13-32% decline in world trade. This estimate indicates that all regions would suffer a double-digit decline in their trade volumes.
While the focus so far has mainly been on China, Europe, and the United States, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be even more severe for emerging economies.
Even though their degree of vulnerability to this shock depends on many factors, the starting point of their public finances is a key issue, as it determines their capacity to respond to the crisis’ many economic consequences. However, their public debt was already at an all-time high in 2019. Coface assesses the direct risks (economic and sectoral) of the pandemic on the development of emerging countries.
Due to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its impact on the global economy, it is unlikely that China will be able to achieve its 2020 growth target. Coface forecasts a growth rate of 4% for the Chinese economy in 2020.
Economic activity in China could decelerate faster than expected this year and miss the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) growth target of 5.6%. In recent months, the Chinese economy has faced multiple headwinds, such as the consequences of the trade war with the United States, as well as structural factors, like the country’s demographic situation (15% of the Chinese population is over 65 years old). In this context, the COVID-19 pandemic is an additional shock that will add significantly to existing challenges.
At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supply and demand – that is affecting a large number of industries in all over the world. The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929). The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.Read More
Despite the economic slowdown, Coface’s latest survey on business payments in Poland shows that payment delays have systematically shortened since 2017 – but the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Polish economy remains to be seen.
Payment terms: transport and construct offer the most generous credit periods
Poland’s GDP growth reached 4.1% in 2019 – a slowdown from the 5.1% recorded in 2018 – and is expected to slow further: Coface anticipates GDP growth in Poland to reach 3.3% in 2020. A relatively favourable macroeconomic environment has created supportive conditions for businesses in previous years. However, the full impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus remains to be observed, notably concerning trade partners. The coronavirus’ knock-on effects could further impact the economic outlook for Poland.
Coface Romania Study: Insolvencies in Romania decreased by 22% in 2019 compared to previous year, reaching its lowest level over the last decade
The majority of insolvencies were registered in the wholesale and distribution sector followed by the constructions and retail sectors
The most recent Coface Romania study shows that in 2019 there were 6,384 insolvent companies, -22% less compared to the level registered in the previous year. The data also indicate a gradual decrease of insolvent companies with revenues over EUR 0.5 million (medium and large companies). The latter reached 444 companies during 2019, below the average of 550 over the last three years. This evolution was also reflected in the decrease of financial losses of only RON 4.6 billion in 2019, half of the average for the last three years.
As Coface launches the 2020 edition of its Country & Sector Risks Handbook, Chief Economist Julien Marcilly today presents the main threats for the global economy in 2020 at the Coface Country Risk Conference in Paris.
The US-China trade agreement will not be enough to rekindle international trade
With 2019 being marked by a rise in protectionist rhetoric (more than 1,000 measures implemented worldwide) and the first decline of global trade in ten years, Coface anticipates that international trade will grow by only 0.8% in 2020. The truce trade agreement between the United States and China is unlikely to restore corporate confidence or significantly boost industry and world trade, especially as only 23% of the protectionist measures taken between 2017 and 2019 affect the United States or China. The rise in protectionism is therefore a global and lasting trend that to which companies will need to adapt
Turkey Payment Survey 2019: better picture in payment term but companies remain cautions regarding economic prospects
Right after the recession that the economy went into during the second half of 2018 the private sector remains mixed in terms of the economic outlook.
Payment terms: shorter terms reflect preference for liquidity
The deterioration of cash flow has slowed down and fewer companies expressed tougher conditions while making their payments. Nowadays, the average payment term offered by Turkish companies to their clients stood nearly at 85 days in the domestic market and at 69 days in export markets (vs 108 days in 2017).
Hit by increasingly stringent regulations, particularly for environmental purposes, the global automotive industry is facing a downturn and is being forced to reinvent itself.
In a gloomy global economic context, the automotive sector faces several very specific challenges, including stronger and stricter environmental regulations. As a result, car sales are experiencing negative growth not seen since the Great Recession of 2008 and there is an uncertainty prevail in the sector.
While the number of companies facing corporate insolvency has decreased since the beginning of the year, their cost has increased, both financially and in terms of the number of jobs affected.
After a difficult first quarter, marked by the repercussions of the “yellow vests” movement, the number of corporate insolvencies since the beginning of the year in France is set to decline for the fourth consecutive year. However, Coface expects a slight rebound in insolvencies in 2020 (+0.9%), mainly due to the expected slowdown in the construction sector, which was largely driven by public works in 2019 in the run-up to the municipal elections.
According to Coface's 2019 Germany payment survey of 442 companies, the country is in a phase of change. The pressure on companies from international competition is increasing. This is one of the reasons why the pressure on their cash flow continues to increase. On average, German companies saw their payment terms increase from 29.8 days in 2017 to 35.9 days in 2019.
Even if credit risks are insured, companies' confidence in their customers has declined. Short- and medium-term credit periods still dominate the market. 87% of companies request that payments be made within 60 days – a very short time in terms of international comparison. Clients missing payment deadlines now affects 85% of German companies, compared to 78% two years ago.
Recession or slight decline, CRAFT provides the keys to the slowdown in the major economies of the Eurozone.
Since the beginning of 2019, there have been increasing signs of a slowdown in global growth. While all economists agree on this downward trend, after reaching the peak of the cycle in 2017, the question mark now lies in the extent of this slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone. While some people mention a recession in 2020, most economists predict "only" a slight slowdown.
To have more clarity, it is therefore important to have reliable and innovative forecasting tools to take advantage of existing indicators. This is why Coface has decided to develop its own forecasting tool: CRAFT (Coface Research Activity Forecasting Tool).
Agri-food sector outlook: in a global economy marked by protectionist tensions, what does the future hold?
Central to the current trade tensions, notably between the USA and China, the global agri-food sector is impacted by knock on effects, notably via downward trends on the prices of key agri-food commodities, such as soybean. Coface has conducted an in-depth analysis of future trends in this market.
A particularly strategic sector, agri-food (along with ICT) is one of the sectors key to the current trade war between the United States and China. Recently, Chinese authorities have taken steps to ban all agri-food imports from the United States, in response to the tariff increases announced by the Trump administration.
With business morale being affected by a summer marked by a multiplication of areas of political uncertainty around the world, it seems likely that 2020 will be a year of economic decline.
The Argentine currency crisis, major demonstrations in Hong Kong and Russia, Brexit, the attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia – these are just some of the many events that marked the third quarter of 2019. Increasing political uncertainty, combined with the decline in the volume of world trade, the high volatility of oil prices, and the decline in automobile sales in Europe and China, has continued to affect corporate morale.
A dominant global maritime and economic power in the 17th century, the Netherlands has remained a major player in world trade. In 2018, the Netherlands was the sixth-largest merchandise exporter in the world and, in terms of GDP, ranked third in 2015 (just behind Ireland and Switzerland).Read More
Insolvencies in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE): despite an increasingly difficult global economic context, the situation remains posit...
The Central and Eastern European region has experienced unparalleled growth in the European Union. However, a slowdown is expected in the coming years.
The CEE region has seen an improvement in economic activity in recent years. In 2017 and 2018, GDP growth in the region rose to 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively, the highest rates since 2008.
Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter compared with before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical averageRead More
A new survey conducted by Coface Romania on the wholesale of pharmaceutical products indicates a positive trend of the revenues of the companies operating in this sector of activity in 2017, but with a slight decrease in profitability. This study aggregated the data of 1,662 companies, which submitted the financial data for 2017 and generated RON 28.6 MLD consolidated turnover.Read More
US/China trade war, struggling automotive sector, slower growth in emerging economies... the second quarter of 2019 highlights a global economic slowdown
The decline in world trade is confirmed for this first half of the year and even if a slight recovery is expected in the second half of the year, it should suffer a 0.7% loss in volume over the year according to the Coface barometer. World economic growth is expected to decrease from 3.1% in 2018 to 2.7% in 2019 and then remain stable in 2020. In this context, Coface expects that a majority of countries should see an increase in corporate insolvencies this year.
Coface Survey: 33% decrease of Insolvencies in Romania in H1 2019 compared to the same period of the previous year
A new survey conducted by Coface Romania on the evolution of insolvencies in Romania in H1 2019, points out a 33% decrease in the number of insolvent companies during this period, in the context of a real and sustainable economic growth of 5.1%. However, the macroeconomic evolution is not sustainable due to many imbalances: the growth of the fiscal deficit by 81% during the first half of this year compared to the same period of the previous year, the highest annual inflation in the EU of 4.1%, the increase of the trade deficit and depreciation of the national currency. Moreover, Coface’s analysis shows that the decline of insolvencies is offset by the increase of the number of radiated companies, the payment delays increase significantly and the large companies are facing a challenging economic environment.Read More
While the yellow vests movement did have a strong impact on corporate insolvencies at the beginning of the year, the decline in mobilization and the resilience of economic growth had a positive impact on the health of French companies in March and April.
Coface's fourth survey on payment terms in Morocco shows a situation that remains worrying despite a slight improvement.
Coface presents its fourth survey on the payment behavior of companies in Morocco. Carried out at the beginning of 2019, this survey aims to monitor the evolution of payment terms and delays between the various Moroccan economic actors.
Positive revenue trend and an increase of 17% in 2017 compared to the previous year for wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equip...
Positive revenue trend and an increase of 17% in 2017 compared to the previous year for wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment
• 17% increase in consolidated revenues in the sector;
• The money conversion cycle became positive in 2017, 3 days, from -1 day in 2016;
• Decrease in the period of receivables collection from 64 to 60 days.
• More than one third of companies (43%) registered a decrease in revenues;
• Almost a third of the companies operating in this sector do not obtain profit from their core business;
• Among companies with turnover > EUR 1 Million, 2018 was a maximum in terms of the number of incidents recorded and the number of companies for which they were registered.
China coordinated its approach to 5G and some successes are already visible. However, China still relies on imports, especially for high-end products, leaving the sector exposed to protectionist threats. Moreover, the deployment of 5G networks by Chinese companies is perceived as a cybersecurity risk by many recipient countries. The US is banning Huawei equipment and pressing its allies to do the same, which could limit the growth of Chinese 5G in the future.Read More
• Consolidated sector revenues increased by 14%
• Over a third of the companies (40%) made investments in 2017
• Profitability ratios have remained at the same level as last year
• Over half of the companies in the sector are exposed to an insolvency risk above average
• The car fleet is obsolete, with 75% of the registered vehicles in use at the end of the year being older than 10 years, in line with the modest evolution of the infrastructure
• Over one third of the companies (43%) reported a decrease in revenues
For the current analysis, data were collected from 2,735 companies that submitted their financial data for 2016 and generated a consolidated turnover of RON 23.02 MLD. Companies in the analyzed sector (4639 Non-specialized Wholesale of Food, Beverages and Tobacco) recorded a positive revenue trend in 2016, rising by about 5% compared to 2015, and a slight increase in profitability compared to 2015.Read More
The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018.Read More
Coface’s latest annual payment survey covered 2,795 corporates in the Asia Pacific region, focusing on 8 markets: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. The survey also traced the evolution of corporate payments in 11 sectors.Read More
The second quarter of 2017 marked a new start for Europe, Russia and, on the sector side, for the automobile and agrofood industries in several countries. In order to give companies a more complete picture of the risks worldwide, Coface is now publishing quarterly assessments of 12 sectors in 24 countries representing almost 85% of the world's GDP, as well as 160 country risk assessments.Read More
Despite the UK economy's resilience, a wait-and-see attitude will develop among businesses and intensify during the negotiations phase.
One year on from the vote to leave the EU, UK businesses are showing resilience, bolstered by household consumption (up 2.6% in 2016), favourable credit conditions and strong worldwide demand. In the last quarter of 2016, companies’ profits totalled over 105 billion pounds sterling - an all-time high. Confidence rose significantly, especially amongst SMEs, after an initial fall in the aftermath of the referendum. Sterling's sharp drop, which is the most visible sign of the looming Brexit, explains the strength of exports, even if the benefits of price competitiveness remain slight.
A survey on corporate credit risk management, to which 1,017 Chinese companies responded, reveals that corporate payments improved in 2016, with only 68% of the respondent companies experiencing overdue payments in 2016 (compared to the previous 5-year average of 80%) and fewer respondents reporting an increase in overdue amounts. Nevertheless, the situation surrounding ultra-long overdues gives cause for alarm, as 35.7% of those companies concerned had ultra-long overdue amounts (over 180 days) which exceeded 2% of their annual turnover.Read More
FOCUS: Russia is emerging from recession, but the structural constraints risk impeding its mid-term growth
The diversification of the Russian economy, made necessary by a slump in oil prices that is set to last, is coming up against structural constraints that may well have a deleterious effect on its mid-term growth. Certain sectors (agrifood, chemicals, automotive, etc.) do, however, seem to be benefiting from an upturn in business that will contribute to recovery in 2017.Read More
Developments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) labour markets have been beneficial for households. Rising wages and low inflation, combined with improving consumer confidence, have led to lower unemployment rates and an increase in private consumption. However, the upturn on the labour market is such that companies are increasingly facing difficulties in recruiting, especially qualified personnel. Manpower shortages and the consequential rise in labour costs are concerns for businesses.Read More
Developments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) labour markets have been beneficial for households. Rising wages and low inflation, combined with improving consumer confidence, have led to lower unemployment rates and an increase in private consumption. However, the upturn on the labour market is such that companies are increasingly facing difficulties in recruiting, especially qualified personnel. Manpower shortages and the consequential rise in labour costs are concerns for businesses.Read More
The widespread rise in the political risk conceals mixed regional dynamics. A complete global index to quantify political risks rooted in the current state of affairs.
Following the political risk index specific for Western Europe (2016) and emerging countries (2013), Coface launches a global index for 159 countries. Combination of two major components - the security risks (conflict and terrorism) and the political and social risks - allows a complete ranking of the political risk.
What are the implications for Chinese corporates?
The potential depreciation of the renminbi (RMB), along with the implementation of capital flow measures, are longstanding concerns for China. The country’s recently announced monetary policy stance of being “prudent and neutral” (which was reiterated during the National People’s Congress) is now an additional focus of attention.
Coface’s first Brazil payment survey, which was conducted with over 120 companies, reveals that they are still facing a challenging environment. 2017 has just begun, but the year’s GDP forecast is already lackluster. Although activity is expected to leave recession, growth is expected to achieve a meager 0.4 %.Read More
The number of insolvencies decreased by 21% in 2016 compared to 2015, from 10,174 to 8,053 and with 54% compared to the average of the last 10 years. 2016 is the first year when the decrease frequency of the insolvencies phenomenon (their number) is accompanied by an decrease of its severity, according to the latest Coface study.Read More
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time. Coface’s survey reveals that nearly a quarter of Polish companies are faced with overdues that exceed due dates by at least three months. In general, outstanding receivables should start to decline - but not markedly so in all sectors.Read More
• Since peaking in 2011, South Africa’s growth performance has been in constant decline
• Financial and retail services are resilient but domestic economics have suffered from prolonged crises in agriculture and mining
• Increasing risks for some strategic sectors, such as automotive and agrofood, could affect national macro-economics
• On the positive side, South Africa benefits from a well-diversified economy
• The country remains the second-largest economy on the African continent and takes the leading position in terms of manufacturing output
Panorama Turkey: After a series of shocks in 2015 and 2016, Turkey’s economy is coming to the end of its new “Tulip era”
• Coface forecasts that Turkey’s economy will grow by 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017
• Government spending is expected to be one of the key growth drivers in 2017
• Currency risks and the persistent current account deficit are the main challenges
• The weakening lira is hindering the development of private consumption
• Retail sector: Risks are escalating, mainly due to slowing domestic demand, rising costs and the diminishing impact of currency weakening on the business environment
Riscurile generate de sectoarele globale, in echilibru precar
• Tendinte mixte sectoriale la nivel mondial
• Patru sectoare retrogradate in America de Nord: retail, textile/ imbracaminte, transport si hartie / lemn
• Un sector retrogradat in Vestul Europei: agro-alimentar
• Doua retrogradari in Europa Centrala: constructii si IT&C si o imbunatatire (transporturi)
• O retrogradare in Orientul Mijlociu: IT&C
De la lansarea Abenomics la inceputul lui 2013, Banca Japoniei (BJ) a diminuat agresiv politica monetara, cunoscuta in mod obisnuit ca „prima sageata a Abenomics”. Aceasta masura a inclus introducerea „Relaxarii monetare cantitative si calitative (RMCC)” in Aprilie 2013, modificarea „RMCC cu o rata negativa a dobanzilor” in Ianuarie 2016 si cel mai recent anunt, „Relaxare monetara cantitativa si calitativa cu control asupra curbei de randament”, in Septembrie 2016. La doar 3,5 ani de la lansare, impactul primei sageti a devenit mai putin eficace, mai ales asupra exportului si a Yenului Japonez.Read More
• GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2016 and by 1.5% in 2017
• Public debt rose to 42.3% in 2015, up from 38.3% in 2013. It is expected to reach 45% by the end of this year.
• Government presents budget cut of 240B MXN, approximately 12.9B USD and 1.2% of GDP
• Proximity to the US political situation continues to bring uncertainties
• Moroccan economy should face a slowdown in activity due to the poor performance of the agricultural sector in 2016
• Although the non-agricultural economy is showing resilience, payment periods for all sectors are lengthening and the companies surveyed expect activity to stagnate
• The 2016 results show that small businesses have shorter payment periods than larger companies
• Late payments continue to be a major obstacle to hiring and investment
• Poland’s economy is slowing this year, although the growth rate will remain fair: 3.2% for 2016, following 3.6% in 2015
• Business is benefiting from positive macroeconomic conditions
• Insolvencies and restructuration proceedings fell by over 14%. Coface forecasts further improvements, with the number of proceedings falling in 2016 and 2017
• Several favourable factors are boosting the sector, including rising populations, increasing demand for processed food, higher per capita incomes and improved production capacities
• Infrastructures, climate and government strategies are major influencers
Pharmaceutical companies in the United States face two opposing scenarios for their business: "optimistic" or "pessimistic”
• The Affordable Care Act helps balance the relationship between insured patients and insurers - without addressing the price problem
• Presidential elections in the United States: measures to lower prescription drug prices
• A further increase of +9/3% expected in prescription drug prices in 2016
• North America’s pharmaceutical sector is upgraded to "low risk"
• A fall in prices is conceivable in the long term, with negative consequences for pharmaceutical companies
Despite strong private and public investments, health indicators in the United States are below average compared to the 12 most advanced countries
Despite the solidity of Germany’s economy, payment delays are still commonplace
• 84% of German companies experience delays in payments, with export companies the most affected
• On a cross-sector average, payment delays correspond to 41.4 days
• For over 3/4 of German companies, the maximum delay is 60 days - lower than in China
• 84.4% of companies grant credit periods. While 20% report reduced outstanding receivables, 16.9% have seen a rise
• Mixed picture across business sectors. Textiles/Leather/Clothing is the most severely affected, at 94.4%
The three largest companies in Baltic States based on turnover are all from Lithuania, according to the Baltics Top 50 companies rating compiled by the international credit insurer Coface. As a positive trend in the Baltics Coface experts mark the rise of household consumption and labor market improvements.Read More
China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, the slowest expansion pace in 25 years. Growth should continue to slow in 2016 and 2017, and will probably undershoot the government’s average annual growth target of 6.5% - as set out in the five-year plan for 2016-2020. China’s ongoing structural reforms have shifted to a greater focus on services and consumption, making the country’s two-speed economy even more evident. The divide between winning and losing sectors is linked to their medium and longer term growth potential, relevant government policies and structural demand.Read More
Radical measures implemented by the Turkish government that followed the attempted coup fuelled uncertainty of international investors. In addition, portfolio investment holdings of non-resident equity investors fell by almost 20% in less than a week from USD 46 MLD to 38 MLD on July 15th USD on July 22th.
Turkey has lost approximately 12B UDS from equity investments held by non-resident investors in the last three months, these capitals outflows fuelling pressure on the Turkish lira depreciation and stock market decline. In this context, a few weeks later after the attempted coup, the Turkish lira depreciated about 6% against the USD, while the index of the Stock Exchange of Turkey (XU100) dropped with 12% in the same period.
Coface upgraded the Romanian’s rank level to A4, risk class indicating that the economic and financial outlook could be marked by some weakness. The political context suffers from tensions, and the business climate still presents significant shortcomings. The average probability of company default is reasonable. In this context, we notice, for the first time in the last eight years, a decreasing effect in the economy caused by insolvencies.Read More
• Heavily impacted by the Chinese slowdown and the fall in commodity prices, sub-Saharan Africa posted its lowest level of growth since 2008
• 15 countries, including several that have been severely impacted by crises, show significant potential in terms of consumer spending
• Two sectors offer medium-term opportunities: retail and ICT
Countries in the Central and Eastern Europe region enjoyed favourable economic con-ditions last year. This led to an improved situation for CEE businesses. The number of insolvencies decreased over the course of 2015 in 9 out of 13 countries, while the GDP-weighted regional insolvency average was -14%. The region showed a varied picture, with double-digit deterioration recorded in Ukraine and Lithuania, whereas Romania and Hungary enjoyed significant improvements. Coface forecasts that businesses will continue to take advantage of supportive conditions and that company insolvencies will drop by -5.3% in 2016.Read More
• Coface forecasts fewer insolvencies in 2016: The Netherlands -11.1%, Sweden -8.0% and Germany -2.5%
• Nevertheless, the decline will be slower than in 2015, due to slightly weaker GDP growth
• Denmark: Insolvencies are expected to rise markedly, by more than 60%
• Germany: Insolvency figures, which have been consistently falling since 2010, are now 30% lower than in 2009
According to the final results of the referendum, 51.9% of the Britons who have come to vote opted for exiting the European Union, their number is higher by about 1.3 million compared to the number of voters who opted for staying in the EU. Although this decision creates many uncertainties and the indirect impact on the medium and long term is very hard to predict, however, we can say that the direct impact, in the short term, regarding Romania is limited.Read More
Coface’s annual survey on Asia-Pacific economies questioned 2,793 companies in 8 markets: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. The survey traced the evolution of corporate payments in 11 sectors of activity. 85% of companies offered sales on credit terms to their customers, as a solution to tackling their problems of liquidity.Read More
• Several Q1 indicators (growth, consumer spending, investment) incite optimism
• The sole blot on the landscape: falling exports, given the slowdown in emerging markets and a lack of competitiveness
• A sharp improvement in the insolvency rate (-3.2% expected in 2016), except in the textile-clothing sector and the Ile-de-France region
• 50% of business sectors have improved
• Road transport hindered by a massive competitiveness gap
Brazil is in the midst of a perfect storm. The enduring political crisis and deep economic recession, which led to the collapse of confidence indexes, have now been topped by an impeachment trial of President Dilma Rousseff. No significant economic rebound is expected before 2017. Brazil’s economy contracted by 3.8% in 2015 and a further drop in GDP of 3% is expected in 2016. in 2016.Read More
Hungary is performing well, considering the context of struggling economies globally. It is continuing to benefit from a moderately growing economy and will show a gain of 2.2% this year. This positive performance is being driven by private consumption, in turn strengthened by falling unemployment, higher disposable incomes, the public welfare programme and the resolution of problems surrounding foreign-currency mortgage loans.Read More
The retail sales of pharmaceutical products in Romania are marked by a general increase of the market as well as by an increase in competition. This is the conclusion of the “Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Products Industry Trade in Romania 2008-2015” Study, conducted by the Academy of Economic Studies in partnership with Coface Romania.Read More
Sector risks remain under pressure in the emerging markets
• Sectoral analysis expanded to 6 regions worldwide
• Sectors that are dependent on investment are more at risk than those tied to consumption
• Metals downgraded to "very high risk" in 4 out of 6 regions
• Sector upgrades in Europe, while sector risks are on the rise in emerging Asia and Latin America
• Following a long period of increasing demand, driven by China in the 2000s, steel is suffering from weak growth in the global economy
• The imbalance between supply and demand is being fed by overcapacity and Chinese exports
• In February 2016, the Chinese government announced the first reduction in production capacity - by 40 million tonnes
• Credit risks are rising for steel companies
• The market is not expected to regain equilibrium before 2018
• Of the 34 emerging countries studied, only 4 are capable of bouncing back in the short term
• Criteria: price competitiveness, indebtedness, political risk
• China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ecuador very much at risk
High tension at the start of the year
• The global economy is turning "Japanese": world growth remains low, despite ultra-expansionist monetary policies
• Surplus cash on financial markets is intensifying volatility
• Three increased risks: Chinese slowdown, low oil prices and mounting political uncertainties
• Based on these developments, Coface has downgraded seven country risk assessments this quarter
A new Coface survey on corporate credit risk management, to which 1,000 companies based in China responded, reveals that corporate payments continued to deteriorate in 2015, with 8 out of 10 corporates experiencing overdue payments. Coface forecasts that GDP growth will slow down to 6.5% in 2016 (vs 6.9% in 2015).Read More
After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth via the oil channel but, above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself. The lifting of sanctions, following the P5+1 agreement, will have a significant effect on raising Iran’s output.Read More
During the China-Celac Forum, held at the beginning of last year, China announced its intention to increase its investment stock in Latin America to 250 billion USD within the next ten years and to attain an annual trade flow of 500 billion USD during the same period.Read More
In a context of low growth, the global sectorial dynamics are mixed. In this overview we analyse five major sectors: automotive, energy, metals, information and communication technologies (ICT) and paper-wood, in North America, emerging Asia and in Western Europe.Read More
The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generallyspeaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched. In this anxiety-provoking environment, other Asian countries seem to be the first potential victims in the event of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.Read More
What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.Read More
Since a deep recession recorded in 2009 Baltic economies have genera ted fair growth rates in the last years. They resulted from a robust increase of exports supported by the high economic openness of the Baltics as well as rising household consumption. The exports’ structure differs from other countries of Eastern Europe as the Baltic countries are more exposed to trading with CIS economies. Whereas the contribution of those emerging markets has had a positive effect in previous years, the deterioration of the Russian economy already hampered the economic activity in the Baltic region in 2014 and it will still negatively affect the pace of GDP growth this year.Read More
The year 2014 was finally one without a major disaster. After years of recession and ongoing difficulties, the development was positive. There is finally an improvement – not as strong as economists hoped for, but stable. Global growth in 2014 was a modest 3.4%, reflecting a pickup in growth in advanced economies relative to the previous year and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies. The Eurozone – the most important trading partner for most countries in CEE – increased by 0.8%.Read More
The Adriatic/Balkan region is very diversified. It consists of many small economies which are supporters of the European Union community idea but have so far received various results – from the Eurozone country Slovenia through the two year-old EU member Croatia to other countries with their separately defined process of the EU integration.
The fourth edition of the Coface Adriatic/Balkan Top 50 ranking sees some changes compared to previous editions. After many years in second place, Slovenian Petrol finally got into the lead - thanks to an increase in turnover +1.4% to EUR 3.3 billion and a weak performance of last year’s winner Croatian Ina D.D. (EUR 3.2 billion, -5.4%). In third place again is Serbian Naftna (EUR 2.0 billion, -1.9%).
The automotive sector plays an important role in the CEE’s economic activity. Thanks to low labour costs, the educated workforce, geographical proximity to Western European markets, tax incentives and the stabilising legal environment, CEE countries have become attractive destinations for investment by global car manufacturers.Read More
This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvencies.Read More
Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner.Read More
According to the preliminary data published by BPI and based on Coface methodology, in the first quarter of 2015, 2,740 new insolvency procedures were initiated. Despite this fact, Romania continues to have an incidence of insolvencies for every 1,000 active companies that is 4 times higher than the regional average, with 45 insolvencies for every 1,000 active companies, and is first in these rankings.Read More
Based on the financials published by the Ministry of Finance, the companies activating in Construction of roads and motorways have generated a consolidated turnover of 11.7 BRON, down by 22% compared to previous year.Read More
Coface continues the economical sector studies with the "Agro Sector Analysis", which presents the financial situation of companies in Romania activating in "Cereal, vegetables and oil seeds crop" sector.Read More
The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with 2.5% growth in 2015.Read More
Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014 (...)Read More
Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only.Read More
The construction sector in Poland has undergone turbulent times. After the booming period related to increased demand for housing construction as well as massive public investments thanks to organizing the Euro 2012 football championship, the sector experienced a significant deterioration.Read More
Disclosure of the exit strategy by FEDChairman Ben Bernanke in May 2013 triggered a new period marked by a change in the risk perception towards developing economies in financial markets. Turkey entered this period with a high current accounts deficit, a production sector substantially dependent on imports and three successive elections.Read More
How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the so-called "Arab Spring" late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries?Read More
The number of newly initiated insolvency procedures in 2014 it significantly dwindled last year (-28%, according to Coface estimates), down to 21,815 initiated procedures. Nevertheless, Romania, alongside Serbia, remains among the countries with the highest incidence compared to the average number of insolvencies per 1,000 active companies in the region.Read More
In 2015, economic activity is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a superior margin increase versus 2014. This trend shall be supported by: private spending, more significant contribution of the gross capital formation, both private and institutional, no contribution to economic growth from agriculture, negative contribution from foreign trade.Read More
Three decades ago Latin America used to be known by negative terms such as dictatorship, debt crises and high inflation. The region's GDP increased by an annual average of only 1.5% in the 1980s. One decade later the rate rose to 2.4% and finally achieved 4.2% between 2003 and 2013. Over the years Latam has begun to be associated with economic growth, new middle class, poverty reduction and controlled inflation.Read More
Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on rise since 2008 and 883 bankruptcies in 2013 is even the highest result in 9 years history. The decreased internal demand caused less contribution to the country’s GDP growth and it was directly perceived by Polish companies.Read More
Coface’s analysis, based on the data provided by the National Trade Register Office, indicates that during the first nine months of this year 15.575 new insolvencies were registered, down by 17% compared to the same period of 2013 (when 18.735 new insolvencies were opened).Read More
This panorama first contains a study on World Trade. World trade stagnated in the first halfyear 2014 and is struggling to recover nearly 6 years after the start of crisis. This is a radical change in trend after 30 years of unprecedented expansion: World exports are today 10 times higher than in 1980. Even during the past decade, marked by the 2008-2009 crisis, exports increased two and a half times. This raises the following question: is the slowdown in international trade since 2008 only a cyclical phenomenon or does it rather correspond to a lasting structural change?Read More
Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese government has continued its effort to carry out various items on the reform agenda, particularly on fine-tuning the structure of the Chinese economy. While various aspects of reform are underway, growth is by no means forgotten. With plenty of signs showing lackluster growth momentum in this year, it is believed that the government is likely to introduce stronger stimulus to sustain economic growth. More specifically, the continuation of targeted-stimuli is expected.Read More
According to the financial statements published by the Ministry of Finance, the companies whose main activity was the "Non-specialized wholesale trade of food, beverages and tobacco" during 2013 generated a total turnover of 21 BEUR and 32,000 jobs, both indicators registering a decrease by 6% compared to the previous year.Read More
The single European Union (EU) market for air transport was formed only in 1997. Since then, the traditional airlines have had to compete with low-cost carriers on their short and medium-haul flights.Read More
A total universe of 1,263 companies operating in the IT and software distribution (NACE 4651) submitted their financial statements on the activity during 2013. According to the financial statements released by the Ministry of Finance, these companies generated a total turnover of the 5.2 BRON, down by 5% compares to previous year.Read More
According to the financial statements published by the Ministry of Finance, 27,252 companies whose main activity was the "road freight transport" during 2013 generated a total turnover of 26.6 BRON up by 8% from the previous year.Read More
Coface publishes its 3rd edition of the Balkan Top 50. The economic problems of the region in the last few years have taken their toll on the top players: Total turnover declined by 1.2% to EUR 39 billion, and profits decreased dramatically by almost 16% to EUR 702 million.
After the soft landing in 2012, the Turkish economic growth accelerated in 2013 on the back of domestic demand, especially strong household consumption expenditures and public spending. The economy posted a faster-then-expected growth of 4 percent in 2013,above the government expectation of 3.6 percent in the medium term plan.Read More
Brazil holds the 7th largest GDP in the world and it is the 5th biggest in terms of extension and of population (over 195 million inhabitants). It is also the main economy in Latin America, representing 40% of the total activity and with a GDP per capita of 11,1 USD.Read More
According to the financial statements published by the Ministry of Finance, the companies whose main activity was the "Wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software" during 2012 generated a total turnover of 5.6 BRON and 5.491 jobs.Read More
New barometer of companies insolvencies in France : a lull is observed from January to April 2014, the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation
of SMEs in France and Spain.
According to the financial statements published by the Ministry of Finance, the companies whose main activity was the "road freight transport" during 2012 generated a total turnover of 24 BRON and 130,233 jobs.Read More
The first quarter of this year registered 5.929 companies in various stages of insolvency, down by 14% compared to the same period of 2013 when 6.910 insolvencies were opened, and down by 17% compared to the same period of 2012.Read More
This Panorama is the second issue of annual publications focused on insolvency trends in Central and Eastern European countries (CEE). It contains the results of a study on insolvencies among the CEE economies, a region experiencing a sharp rise in the rate of insolvencies in many countries during 2013.Read More
Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?Read More
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee (CPCCC) in November, a broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. These are clear signals that the Chinese effort to restructure the economy is more than just rhetoric. These are clear signals that the Chinese effort to restructure the economy is more than just rhetoric.Read More
According to the preliminary data published by BIP (Bulletin of Insolvency Proceedings) and based on Coface methodology, in 2013 26,372 new insolvency proceedings were initiated, with approximately 2% more than during the previous year (25,842 insolvency proceedings).Read More
The construction sector, overrepresented among french company insolvencies, with risks that will continue to increase in 2014
The construction sector is currently in something of a paradoxical situation: More than one in three company insolvencies in France still come from this sector, despite the property market remaining relatively resilient during the 2008-2009 crisis.Read More
According to the final data published by BPI and based on Coface methodology, during the first nine months of the current year, 18,321 new insolvencies were initiated, with approximately 3.5% less compared to the same term of the previous year, when 18,991 new insolvency proceedings were initiated.Read More
This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behavior patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefiting most from this expansion of consumption?Read More
This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.Read More
Poland again ranked first, Hungary and Romania catching up and Ukraine dropping out of the Top 3 – Biggest companies with more turnover, but a sharp decline in profit – Economic region CEE: more inhomogeneous than ever – insolvency rate in the region almost tripledRead More
Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?Read More
This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.Read More
Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors.Read More
In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.Read More
The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.Read More
Global Construction: Substantial Geographic Differences, High Sensitivity to Economic conditions, Permanent Credit Risk
The global construction sector is a kaleidoscope of diversity with substantial differences between countries and even between the regions of a given country.The sensitivity to changes in economic conditions also varies widely. In general,payment incidents involving actors in the sector are not uncommon. This surveyis intended to enable international trade actors to gain an awareness of the risksand opportunities that characterise this market.Read More