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All Coface Publications

10/26/2021
Economic Publications

Barometer Q3 2021: Supply chain and inflation headwinds hamper the global recovery

More than 18 months after the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic started, the economic recovery continues. This trend owes much to progress in the vaccine rollout over the summer, particularly in advanced economies. In turn, this is spurring a rebound in consumption of high-contact services. The situation remains heterogeneous in emerging economies: this rebound is benefitting export-oriented countries, while service-dependent economies continue lagging.

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10/12/2021
Economic Publications

Has the global retail sector returned to normal?

The retail sector’s activity has been affected by the COVID crisis through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the sector greatly varies across countries and segments. While some countries did experience lower retail sales in 2020, the effect was null in others and even positive in Northern European countries. The impacts are also different according to the segments, clothing stores being the most affected.

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10/08/2021
Economic Publications

IN THE COVID-19 AFTERMATH, LATIN AMERICAN EXPORTS TOWARDS CHINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND AT THE UNITED STATES’ EXPENSE

The trade relationship between China and Latin America has expanded considerably over the past two decades, gradually standing out (compared to the U.S.) as an important market for the region’s exports. The reasons behind this sustained trend range from the difference in growth rates observed in the world’s two largest economies to the trade policies implemented by the U.S. and Chinese governments in recent years. To analyse the trade relations with these two countries, this paper focuses on the trade in goods of the six largest economies in the region (excl. Mexico): Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru.

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10/05/2021
Economic Publications

New wave of post-pandemic social movements: international trade as collateral victim

While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a temporary stop to the upsurge of protest movements, a new wave is on the horizon. Protests, mainly in emerging countries, are expected to increase due to an unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators. In 2020, the Coface social and political risk indicator reached a record of 51% worldwide, and 55% in emerging countries.

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09/30/2021
Economic Publications

Germany Corporate Payment Survey 2021: Learning to live with the pandemic

The 5th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany was conducted in July and August 2021, with 819 companies participating.
One of the main takeaways is that German companies seem to have acclimatised to the pandemic environment. More companies are offering payment terms compared to last year when the figure had fallen sharply. Although Germany experienced a strong recession in 2020 and early 2021, payment discipline continued to improve in 2021 compared to already good results in 2020. Furthermore, the average duration of payment delays shortened by over a week.

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09/14/2021
Economic Publications

What perspectives for the United Arab Emirates after COVID-19?

The UAE’s economy was hit by a double shock in 2020: the collapse in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. According to preliminary estimates, the UAE’s economy shrank by 6.1% in 2020. However, the outlook is brighter for 2021. Coface expects growth at 3.1% thanks to a fast vaccination campaign, a sharp recovery of the global economy and the rebound in energy prices.

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07/29/2021
Economic Publications

Is the electric vehicle metals boom sustainable?

The metals used in electric vehicles, such as lithium, cobalt and copper, are at the heart of the revolution currently taking place in the automotive industry. Strict regulations, government support programmes, and the increased use of electric vehicles in certain regions are all strongly stimulating demand for these metals, which are now indispensable in the manufacture of batteries. Imbalances between supply and demand are thus pushing up their prices, even though the market share of electric vehicles remains modest. In its latest analysis, Coface does not foresee any major changes in these price trends over the next two years.

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07/13/2021
Economic Publications

Barometer Q2 2021: A two-speed world

18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the main factor setting the pace of people's daily lives and the global economy. GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is mainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume last year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.

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07/08/2021
Economic Publications

Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2021:

Coface’s 2021 Asia Corporate Payment Survey, conducted between October 2020 and March 2021, provides insights into the evolution of payment behavior and credit management practices of over 2,500 companies across Asia Pacific during a pandemic year. Respondents came from nine markets (Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan) and 13 sectors located in the Asia Pacific region.

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07/01/2021
Economic Publications

Remote Work: The Risks and Opportunities of Virtual Offshoring

from the crisis, this cultural shift could allow companies located in developed countries to hire teleworking talent in emerging countries to reduce their labour costs. Coface estimates that the total number of teleworkable jobs in high-income economies is about 160 million, while the number of potential teleworkers in low- and middle-income economies is about 330 million. Coface also estimates that French compaines would save 7% on labor costs even if only 1 in 4 teleworkable jobs were offshored.

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05/31/2021
Economic Publications

China: rising payment risks in construction and energy sectors despite stronger economic outlook

Overall, the Chinese economy expanded by 2.3% in 2020, being the only major economy to record growth, and Coface expects the GDP to accelerate to a 7.5% growth in 2021.This would be the fastest pace since 2013, and comfortably above the minimum of 6% set by the authorities.

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05/18/2021
Economic Publications

Germany: More insolvencies in the pipeline, despite significant aid

Insolvencies in Germany dropped significantly in 2020 compared to 2019, despite the worst recession since 2009. This is largely thanks to public support programmes. However, the early-announced applications for regular insolvency proceedings (Regelinsolvenzverfahren) at courts already increased sharply in February and March, signaling a pending increase in corporate insolvencies in the next months. Coface’s forecasting model shows that up to 4030 insolvencies were prevented by the State-support in 2020, which is now in single parts being withdrawn, and could take place in 2021/22. From a corporate perspective, the crisis is far from over.

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05/06/2021
Economic Publications

Coface Quarterly Barometer: US leads the global recovery, emerging economies lag behind

More than a year after the start of the pandemic, global economic trends are uneven due to lingering uncertainties around the spread of COVID-19. The acceleration of the vaccination process, as well as its effectiveness, are key to an economic recovery. In this context, the prospects for a return to normalcy are both uneven and uncertain across sectors of activity and geography, according to the latest barometer from Coface.

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04/14/2021
Economic Publications

COFACE REPORT LOOKS AT CHINA AND AUSTRALIA'S TRADE RELATIONSHIP

The China-Australia bilateral relationship deteriorated sharply over 2020, with China imposing both formal and informal trade restrictions on a number of Australian exports, including coal, barley, beef, wine, cotton among others. However, despite China’s trade action, the Australian economy continued a solid recovery from the pandemic, registering two consecutive quarterly GDP growth in the second half of 2020 as business conditions move towards normality following an easing of containment measures. W

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04/08/2021
Economic Publications

United States: Stimulus plan paves the way for record trade deficit

As the world's largest importer, and second largest exporter of manufactured goods, the United States has had a trade deficit since the early 1970s. Escalating trade tensions - in particular with China - and the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted trade flows have affected the trade balance in recent year. The trade deficit has reached a record level of over 900 billion USD in 2020.

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03/23/2021
Economic Publications

The paradox of corporate insolvencies in Europe: miracle and mirage

The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic heralded major business failures and insolvencies in France, and across the eurozone as a whole. But, in 2020, and even if the real impact of the COVID-19 crisis remains uncertain, the number of insolvencies actually fell in all major European economies. According to research by Coface, a leading player in credit insurance, the gap between the expected deterioration of the companies’ financial health and the number of insolvencies suggests that there is a high number of “hidden insolvencies” that have been postponed, rather than prevented. This suggest that, in both France and Europe, there is high number of unviable companies whose failure is only a matter of time.

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03/17/2021
Economic Publications

Diversification is one of the many effects of oil price volatility on Middle Eastern and African oil producers

Study on the impact of oil price volatility in the Middle East and Africa

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02/25/2021
Economic Publications

Poland: Payment delays between companies shorten during the pandemic

The year 2020 was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to mitigate the impact of this difficult economic situation on Polish companies, various liquidity-supporting aid measures were introduced, such as tax and contribution exemptions and deferrals. As a result, despite the extensive economic crisis, payment delays between companies have shortened – however, with these aid measures are to be phased out in 2021, two thirds of companies expect their business activities to deteriorate this year.

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10/05/2020
Economic Publications

COVID-19, a catalyst for political risks

The annual update of Coface's Political Risk Index, published in the Coface Q3 Barometer, highlights a dual trend: on the one hand, a decrease in the risk of conflict at a global level, but on the other, an increase in the risk of political and social fragility. The latter is exacerbated in the countries most exposed to the coronavirus pandemic.

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09/14/2020
Economic Publications

Will Europe remain a renewable energy powerhouse after the pandemic?

The COVID-19 health crisis has had a negative impact on short-term global renewable energy development, and challenges remain in the medium- to long-term, according to a recent Coface study.
Renewables have strengthened rapidly in the last 20 years, particularly in power generation, increasingly gaining market share from traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and nuclear. The COVID-19 crisis has had a significant impact on this segment of the energy sector, as the pandemic disrupted supply chains and labour availability. Access to funding was also hit hard. These recent trends have affected projects that had already been approved, as well as other projects in the pipeline

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