Panorama Country Risk - Brazil
Brazil holds the 7th largest GDP in the world and it is the 5th biggest in terms of extension and of population (over 195 million inhabitants). It is also the main economy in Latin America, representing 40% of the total activity and with a GDP per capita of 11,1 USD.
In 2001 with the creation of the acronym BRIC, together with Russia, India and China, Brazil was raised as one of the emerging economies bound to grow. The idea that the biggest economy in LATAM was going to take off was based on high commodity prices due to Chinese rapid growth, the deep oil field found recently discovered (the Pre-Salt) and the fertile land and abundant mineral sources. The country is a major producer and exporter of many commodities, such as soya and iron ore.
From 2004 to 2008 Brazil had grown, on average, by 4,8% a year, but in the former period, from 2009 to 2013, the average rate declined to 2,7%. It is true that activity deceleration in China contributed, but it explains just a part of what has happened.
The country did not take advantage of the good winds to make important reforms, such as improving the infrastructure and the business climate. According to Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014 of the World Economic Forum Classification, Brazil was ranked at the position 56 of 148 participants in terms of competitiveness.
PART I: MACRO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Current Macro-economic scenario in Brazil
PART II: BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY
Chemicals: Blowing against the wind
Automotive: A challenging start of year
Agro: Bad days seem to definitely be over
Steel: World overcapacity and lack of competitiveness remain
Retail: Not as shiny as before
PART III: SECTOR BAROMETER
Sector Risk Assessment
PART IV: CONCLUSION
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