Coface Barometer Q1 2020 - COVID-19: heading towards a sudden global surge in business insolvencies

At first, the COVID-19 epidemic in China only affected a limited number of value chains – but it has since turned into a global pandemic. Its repercussions have created a double shock – supplyanddemand – that is affecting a large number of industries in all over the world. The uniqueness of this crisis makes comparisons with the previous ones useless, as they all had financial origins (e.g. global credit crisis of 2008-09, great depression of 1929). The question is no longer which countries and sectors of activity will be affected by this shock, but rather which few will be spared.

The shock could be even more violent in emerging economies: in addition to managing the pandemic, which will be more difficult for them, they are also facing the fall in oil prices, as well as capital outflows that have quadrupled compared to their 2008 levels.

In this context, Coface forecasts that 2020 will see the global economy’s first recession since 2009, with a growth rate of -1.3% (after +2.5% in 2019). Coface also expects recessions in 68 countries (vs only 11 last year),world trade to fallby 4.3%this year (after a -0.4% drop in 2019),and a 25% worldwide increase in business failures (compared to our previous January forecast of +2%).